Disclaimer - On stock markets, my views may not be used to make investment decisions. I may or may not hold positions in the market. My views on Economics often contradict the stand of mainstream economists.

Showing posts with label Hyper-Inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hyper-Inflation. Show all posts

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Will US enter into Hyper-inflation?

Inflation happens "when too much money chases too few goods" (in common parlance). Since a lot of money is being printed and thrown into the system, many analysts believe that inflation will start building up in US.

However, this can happen only if demand for goods picks up, demand for credit goes up and banks start extending credit. If none of the above happen, then despite additional money being printed, it will not chase goods. Take the example of Japan, which did not see hyper inflation despite years of money being pumped into the system by the govt.

My own view is that for the next few years, US citizens are not going to go back to old ways of spending on credit. The recent experience has been bad enough for them to make long term changes in habits. Savings will go up as indeed they are going up as off now. In such a scenario, inflation running away seems unlikely.

What will happen a few years down the line, when people forget the experience post 2007? If US citizens go back to their old ways and the Fed is not smart enough to have pulled out the money in the intervening years, well, US could see hyper inflation. But to say the least, this does not seem to be a scenario for the next three-four years, until and unless one believes that the US economy is going to be back on track very quickly.

I for one, would not consider hyper-inflation in US as a matter of concern, at least for the time being.