For the past many months, we have been waiting for Nifty to give a deep correction, in line with our perception of the economy. But that has not happened.
Initially, we thought that distribution may be taking an extraordinarily long time, in view of the scare caused by the crash in 2008. Perhaps that was true as scared investors did not seem to be wanting to take positions, especially at high levels. But this seems no longer true.
Analysis in F&O segment shows that the positions in index are about two times what they were in Jan 2008, just before the crash. Enough to raise a red flag of caution.
We may or may not crash yet. But we must be cautious in investing.
Disclaimer - On stock markets, my views may not be used to make investment decisions. I may or may not hold positions in the market. My views on Economics often contradict the stand of mainstream economists.
Friday, September 3, 2010
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