Why Nifty should fall !

There are many reasons why i feel Nifty shall fall. To bring out all of them would be difficult, so i give one simple argument. (Of course, i can be wrong).

1. March 2009, we hit 2539. (Bottom)

2. Just two and a half months later we hit 4693 (TOP).

( thanks to a huge Gap up opening post election result which saw market gain 17% in a single day. That caught all of us by surprise for it was unprecedented).

3. The correction to the rise took us to 3919. (bottom)

4. We then moved to 5182. (Top)

5. Next we fell to 4538. (bottom)

6. We then moved to 5311. (Top)

7. We corrected then to 4675 (Bottom)

8. We then moved to 5400 (Top)

9. We corrected to 4786. (bottom)

10. Now we have moved to 5453. (Assumed to be a top for the time being)

The length of rally and falls in points are as follows


Rally Fall
2154 774
1263 599
773 636
725 614
667 (assumed top)

Notice how each rally has become smaller and smaller, whereas the last three falls have been roughly 600 points each. Seems like a market loosing momentum.

Such a pattern is rare, especially in view of the extended time it has managed to keep itself up. To keep confusion alive, market is indeed so far making a higher top and a higher bottom ( a normal sign of bullishness).

There are of course many other reasons,but taking all the reasons in view, I would consider this market as downright dangerous and a fall most likely.